中国石化新闻网讯 据钻井地带网站5月9日报道，如果需要的话，欧佩克+还有很多措施可以进一步减产。Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB)首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop在发给钻井地带（Rigzone）的一份声明中表示，该集团已“明确表示”每桶70美元是油价的底线。

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Schieldrop在声明中表示：“欧佩克+才刚刚开始减产，从5月开始每天减产150万桶。但这只是将沙特阿拉伯的石油产量恢复到每天约1000万桶的正常水平，要知道2022年9月的高产量是异常的，达到每天1100万桶” 。

SEB分析师在声明中指出，欧佩克+现在将在5月份评估最新减产的影响，并表示联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)将于6月4日举行会议，并向该组织提出建议。

Schieldrop在声明中说，“如果当时明确需要进一步减产，那么我们可能会在7月5日至6日欧佩克+会议之前的6月份进行口头干预，然后如果需要的话，进行新的减产”。

第48届JMMC会议于4月3日通过视频会议举行，会议指出，沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚、阿曼和加蓬于4月2日宣布了一项自愿生产调整，从5月开始，一直持续到2023年底。

上个月，欧佩克网站透露，JMMC第49次会议将于6月4日举行。在去年12月4日举行的欧佩克与非欧佩克部长级会议之后，欧佩克网站上发布的一份声明显示，下一次欧佩克与非欧佩克部长级会议将于6月4日举行。在撰写此文时，第49届JMMC会议和下一届欧佩克+会议都没有出现在欧佩克网站的“即将发生的事件”部分。唯一出现的活动是第八届欧佩克国际研讨会，目前定于7月5日至6日举行。

减产证明是有效的

Schieldrop在声明中表示，欧佩克+的减产一次又一次地证明是有效的。

2008年12月，欧佩克宣布大幅减产，使油价在平安夜跌至每桶33.8美元。2020年5月，石油日产量大幅减少970万桶，这使得油价在2020年4月的低谷后飙升。

常规的历史模式是，首先价格触底，然后降价，然后反弹。这使市场产生了一种类似的预期，即油价首先将达到每桶40美元，然后欧佩克+将大幅减产，然后反弹。

Schieldrop在声明中指出，欧佩克+的行动速度更快，也更加警惕。

他说，“更快的市场和更快的欧佩克+行动意味着我们仍然可能会遇到价格的低谷，但这种低谷不会持续太久。以前，当欧佩克行动缓慢时，石油库存有时间大幅增加。当欧佩克减产时，将需要一些时间来扭转库存积累，使油价在更长时间内保持在低位”。

Schieldrop补充说，“欧佩克+今天的快速行动意味着，如果经济出现问题，库存将没有时间增加到同样的程度，从而导致更短的抛售和更剧烈、更快的反弹”。

石油价格

布伦特原油价格在3月17日以每桶72.97美元收盘，但在4月12日以每桶87.33美元收盘，5月3日以每桶72.33美元收盘。自那以来，布伦特原油价格已升至每桶77美元以上。

2022年5月9日，布伦特原油价格收于每桶105.94美元。

王佳晶 摘译自 钻井地带 网站

原文如下：

OPEC+ Has Lots of Dry Powder for Further Cuts

OPEC+ has lots of dry powder for further cuts if needed.

That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, a Chief Commodity Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in a statement sent to Rigzone, adding that the group has “made it clear” that $70 per barrel is the oil price floor.

"OPEC+ has only just begun cutting".

Image by Amguy via iStock

“OPEC+ has only just begun cutting, with a 1.5 million barrel per day reduction starting in May,” Schieldrop said in the statement.

“But this is only bringing Saudi Arabia’s oil production back to roughly its normal level of around 10 million barrels per day following unusually high production of 11 million barrels per day in September 2022,” he added.

The SEB analyst noted in the statement that OPEC+ will now spend the month of May assessing the effects of the latest cuts and said the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will then meet on June 4 and make a recommendation to the group.

“If it becomes clear at that time that further cuts are needed, then we will likely get verbal intervention during June in the run-up to the OPEC+ meeting [on] 5-6 July, and then fresh cuts, if needed,” Schieldrop said in the statement.

The 48th JMMC meeting, which took place via videoconference on April 3, noted a voluntary production adjustment announced on April 2 by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, and Gabon starting in May until the end of 2023, a statement posted on OPEC’s website following the 48th meeting highlighted.

The OPEC site revealed last month that the 49th Meeting of the JMMC is scheduled to take place on June 4. A statement posted on OPEC’s site following the previous OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, which took place on December 4, revealed that the next OPEC-non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting would take place on June 4. At the time of writing, neither the 49th JMMC meeting nor the next OPEC+ meeting appear on the upcoming events section of the OPEC site. The only event that appears is the 8th OPEC International Seminar, which is currently scheduled to take place on July 5-6.

Production Cuts Prove Effective

Production cuts by OPEC+ have proved effective time and time again, Schieldrop said in the statement.

“Deep cuts announced by OPEC in December 2008 made the oil price bottom out at $33.8 per barrel on Christmas Eve. A massive 9.7 million barrel per day cut in production in May 2020 onward made the oil price soar after the trough in April 2020,” the analyst added.

“The regular historical pattern is first a price-trough, then cuts, then rebound. This creates an anticipation by the market of a similar pattern this time - that the oil price first is going to head to $40 per barrel, then deep cuts by OPEC+ and then the rebound,” he continued.

In the statement, Schieldrop noted that OPEC+ is faster and much more vigilant today.

“Faster markets and faster OPEC+ action means we could still have a deep trough in prices but it won’t last very long,” he said.“Oil inventories previously had time to build up significantly when OPEC acted slowly. When OPEC then made cuts it would take some time to reverse the inventory build-up, keeping prices lower for longer,” he said.

“Rapid action by OPEC+ today means that inventories won’t have time to build up to the same degree if everything goes wrong with the economy, leading to briefer selloffs and sharper and faster rebounds,” Schieldrop added.

Oil Price

The price of Brent crude closed at $72.97 per barrel on March 17, before rising to a close of $87.33 per barrel on April 12, and dropping to a close of $72.33 per barrel on May 3. Brent has since risen to a close of above $77 per barrel.

On May 9, 2022, the price of Brent closed at $105.94 per barrel.